One last push

As we go into the last furlong, it seems like an ambitious, fair and binding deal has little real chance of working.

It has been interesting to follow the tcktcktck campaign as it nears its finish. Kumi Naidu, Greenpeace CEO was joined by George Monbiot, Naomi Klein, Katherine Goldstein (Huffington Post) and Andrew Revkin of the New York Times at the full capacity Fresh Air Centre on Wednesday night.

Kumi Naidu was holding out a remote hope that a deal might be met, having seen the Bali conference come together at the last minute. "It is still within leaders' grasp and sense of decency to produce a good deal." He went on to say that 14o billion dollars in financing is still needed per year.

"It ain't over till the thin man from Washington signs a fair, ambitious and legally binding treaty...with 48 hours to go all focus is now on Barack Obama."

Greenpeace have delivered a letter to him asking him to deliver what a good deal. This is available both on the Greenpeace and the tcktcktck homepages.

He finished with "We want a Hopenhagen not a Flopenhagen or a Nopenhagen!"

Kumi also spoke about possible plans for tcktcktck to continue into next year.

Andy Revkin mentioned that some of the negotiations have gone back to language that was included in the 1992 Rio Summit. This includes that all incremental costs should be paid for by developed nations. Much of the gulf in debate is over issues since 1992.

George Monbiot talked about the bizarre scenes that went on behind "climategate" with the University of East Anglia's climate scientists inept public relations rather than the accuracy of their data analysis being the real problem. Lies and half truths are spread by many of the spin doctoring climate skeptics whereas the climatologists have a real problem communicating their indepth, perr reviewed research to the general public.

He went on to say that climate change is the tip of the iceberg, when you consider the challenges of peak oil and water to name a few. Ultimately there is a divide between those that want to have unlimited growth consumption whatever the cost and others who are stressing the need for constraint or as he said "a war of human decency over sheer bloody selfishness".

Naomi Klein stressed the need for people to start thinking about post Copenhagen messaging. After talking to Ambassador Lomumba (the Sudanese head of the G77 group), she felt that the negotiations were falling apart. "Developing countries are the only ones who are trying for a deal that is based on both science and justice. No deal may be better than a bad deal."

However whatever happens from now, she pointed out that there are some historical gains that have been won. "People now know what climate justice is ....75% of the problem faced is caused by rich nations, whereas 75% of its effects are felt by the developing world.. the solutions we need should be based on the position of the polluter pays."

Thursday onwards....

NGOs are now regrouping around central Copenhagen having lost their access to the Bella centre. Hundreds are fasting and preparing for an overnight vigil.

What can the thin man from Washington produce?

The few people who are reading this blog can help by joining the tcktcktck campaign. They are now aiming to get to 15 million pledges. Pledge on http://tcktcktck.org/

Activism and art in Copenhagen

Press conference about the book "Unheard voices - the challenge of climate change in Tanzania"

The Yes Men, Action Aid's Climate Debt Agents and Thierry Geoffrey have put together a great exhibition and a "shadow" Bella centre at the Poulson Gallery in central Copenhagen. This includes a mock press conference centre that they constructed in collaboration with local artists.

If only......

It was from this studio on Monday that the Canadian government supposedly made the announcement that would make a 40% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. This then prompted a response from the Ugandan government (aka Margaret Matembe from the climate debt agents) saying that "climate debt reparations are not aid, they are a legal framework that sets everyone on a equal footing....History is what we the people of the world push forward on its next march. I am deeply grateful to be the humble conveyor of history's march today."

Uganda's response in full - http://www.youtube.com/user/cop15dk#p/a/u/2/UgelKExZYfQ

The story has been picked up in Canadian press and has had the following response from the Canadian government, this seems to be authentic...... or is it another Yes Men hoax?

http://www.youtube.com/user/cop15dk#p/a/u/1/fDEDZPYfGs4

Back to reality...

Meanwhile we are no closer to a deal than we were a few days or in fact two years ago. The promises made thus far in emission cuts by developed countries come no where near the figures stated by the science. Financing that will be made available from developed countries for adaptation and technological transfer remains inadequate to deal with the huge challenges faced. Hunter Cutting of Climate Action Network and the CEO of Oxfam UK speaking at the Fresh Air Centre last night both felt that the current brinkmanship in the talks, with developed countries not making significant changes in their position, had to be broken for there to be a deal even close to what many campaigners and developing countries are hoping for.

In the mean time some of the best offers on the table are from developing countries, including China, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa and India. All these countries have proposed to reduce the carbon intensity of their industries. We now need one of the large developed nations to step up and make a pledge in financial commitments and emissions reduction in the region of what we need to get a fair and ambitious deal. Without that do we want it to be binding? It now appears that the conference will go on till Saturday. However 2 years of negotiations show us its political will rather than time that is the problem.

Activists now march on the Bella centre and there will be more arrests, with what is at stake who can blame people for their frustration?

Marching on Copenhagen

Saturday's peaceful march by people from all over the world was unfortunately over shadowed by a group of anarchists hoping to bring the "evil" world of capitalism down by smashing up a few shops in central Copenhagen. Nice one guys, you really achieved something.

However 50,000 plus people created peaceful, carnival atmosphere to show their eagerness for a fair, ambitious and binding deal in Copenhagen.

The end of the march featured speeches by Mary Robinson, Vandana Shiva, Helena Christiansen and many others. Apart from 40% reduction in emissions from developed countries from 1990 levels by 2020, Mary Robinson also put forward the need for developed nations to come up with 200 billion USD to help developing countries to respond to climate change. There is a very long way to go in the negotiations before get anywhere near that level.

Food for thought - the amount of money each developed nation spent to bail out the bankers last year -

The US spent $700 billion in their bank bail out. Banks bailed out - http://bailout.propublica.org/main/list/index

However the wider bailout of the US economy was a lot more, estimated here at 8.5 trillion USD.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/11/26/MNVN14C8QR.DTL&o=0

The EU's pledge of 7.2 billion Euro (over 10 billion USD) is a small step in the right direction but still woefully inadequate. What can the US come up with?

Wajumbe wa Deni la Mabadiliko ya Tabia Nchi

Unakutana nao karibu kila kona unayokatiza. Ni vijana wadogo, lakini wakipita karibu na uliposimama huwezi kuacha kuwatazama, wanakufanya ulazimike kushirikiana nao katika kile wanachofanya. Wamejibatiza jina la Climate Debt Agents. Hawa ni vijana toka katika nchi kadha za Kiafrika ambao wapo ha Kopenhagen kupiga mbiu ya kuyataka mataifa makubwa kulipa deni lao juu ya uharibifu mkubwa wa mazingira ambayo wamefanya kwa dunia. (kutoka kushoto: Edith January, Zimbabwe; Rachel Kessi, Joyce Anjiri, Tanzania)

Mwandishi maarufu wa masula ya mabidiliko ya tabia nchi, Naomi Klein, alisifu juhudi zao wakati alipokuwa akitoa mada jana katika mkutano wa watu wa ‘Klima’. Unaweza kusoma habari zao zaidi katika mtandao unaokwenda kwa jina la www.climatedebtagents.com (Adrian Nzamba, Tanzania; Bob Sankofa)

Stories featured in the book - Coastal and freshwater resources

Weather change in Zanzibar

Fishermen in many areas are noticing changes in weather patterns.

ALI MAKAME MADAHA, fisherman, Nungwi, Zanzibar

"We have seen changes in the climate here. The rainy season is less defined and more haphazard. Less rain has meant that agricultural production is not as good as before. Even when the rains come they are not as good as before.

In the past there was more of a distinction between cold and hot seasons. Now it is always hot. The season for fishing is less defined. There used to be certain times of the year when you could catch specific species of fish. Now it is hard to tell.

We used to stay close to the shore to fish because there was plenty of fish available there. We used to sell our catch at low prices because money went further in those days. Today we have to go further out to sea to catch fish and everything is more expensive.

The patterns of the winds have also changed. The Northeast monsoons came in October to January, and the Southeast monsoons came in March to August. September to October used to be the period of calm, called “Matilai” when we used to do a lot of fishing.

Although the monsoons are similar today, the patterns are less predictable. For example in the middle of a defined season, a wind will suddenly blow from the opposite direction. We began to notice this change in the 1980s. For us fishermen these unexpected winds mean that during “Matilai” we cannot go out to fish, even though there is a big market for the fish.

There is also an increase in population, which means that people have more family members to support and more mouths to feed.

To solve some of the problems we are facing we need to do alternative livelihood activities so we are less dependent on the natural resources that are being depleted. People are ready to take on environmentally friendly activities if they are available."

Stories featured in the book - Water

Women and water

“Women in sub-Saharan Africa spend 40 billion hours per year collecting water, equivalent to a year’s labour of the entire workforce of France.” EarthScan 2005

A key role of a Tanzanian woman is to fetch water for her family. This is often an arduous and thankless task; as clean water sources become scarcer, what was once a sociable and even joyous occasion, has turned into a difficult and time consuming chore, with negative implications for their health and energy.

Judith Kobo, Kiegea Village, Morogoro region

“Water is a big problem. I used to get water from a stream two minutes from the house, but now I have to go up the mountain, which is far away, or to a the pump where there are long queues. People often leave the house at 4am to collect water and only return at midday, when they need to feed their children and work on their farms. This makes life hard.”

Stories featured in the book - Agriculture and food security

In the book we have included positive stories about how people around Tanzania can adapt to climate change rather than just focus on the problems they face.

Overcoming drought in Dodoma

Dodoma has experienced decreased rainfall and ensuing famine in recent years. This cycle is likely to be repeated in the future. however, despite their recent hardship, locals are creating their own solutions to their challenging circumstances.

Christopher Modula, farmer, Muugano Village

“When I was born and grew up in this village, the environment and land was very good. We had good rains the surrounding hills had many trees and we harvested a lot of food.”

Christopher explains that one day the area became de- stocked of cattle as the herds were too big which was leading to erosion. This in turn led to many problems; when people lost manure from their cows, they also lost fertiliser for their crops. As a result crops failed and people began to cut down trees in the hills in order to make and sell charcoal from the wood. This in turn led to desertification, reduced rainfall, drought and then desperate famine.

“I thought of what I could do. …I started to dig trenches for my crops. I put organic matter such as crop remains and manure into the trenches. In this way I tried to restore the soil’s fertility and to keep moisture in the ground. It worked! As a result I have increased my yield of tomatoes and I don’t need to irrigate, as the rainwater is harvested in this trench.

During the first trial I started with 10 trenches. I saw very big changes with this and I got a good price for my tomatoes. After harvesting a good crop from these, I bought a machine that shelled groundnuts. Then I dug more trenches, and I bought a flour-mill with the money. I started a small shop and bought eight oxen and two dairy cattle. This innovation has helped me and has rescued me from many problems. Many other farmers in this village are having to apply for food aid but thankfully I don’t need it, I have my own solution to my problems..”

Christopher’s success was partly achieved with the help of INADES, a Pan-African NGO that works with rural people, encouraging them to devise their own solutions to local problems, and linking them up with markets. Christopher is now selling his tomatoes at Kariakoo Market in Dar es Salaam.